Saturday, February 09, 2013

[BASE] Price of Bitcoin In 2014?

1 BTC = $50+ before the end of the year  :-P

"USD Price Since Genesis Block" Chart (courtesy of dacoinminster)

Here's a snapshot of current market stats:

Total BTC currently =                                   10,759,550
Current Price USD/BTC =                            $23.50/BTC
Current Generation =                                    1,278,340 BTC/year
Inflation rate =                                              11.88% over the next year
Total BTC in one year =                               12,037,890

Current Market Cap (price X total BTC) =        $255,539,313
Nominal Market cap at $23.50 in one year =     $282,890,415
Real Market Cap in one year at same $23.50 =  $225,181,243

Required demand by end of year for current Bitcoin value =  $30,358,070 at $23.50/BTC

Now for the fun part:

tumblr_inline_mhw1deFnM51qz4rgp.png

At the current rate: $1 Million X 12 =     $12 Million/year
OR at $23.50:                                 510,638 BTC/year
Needed demand, just for inflation:    1,278,340 BTC/year

Thus, Coinbase percentage estimate of needed yearly BTC demand: 40%

And that's just from one exchange at their CURRENT demand!

What if we could gather demand from every other exchange? What if we could accurately predict an increase for demand in the next year?

For fun, let's assume we can!

So, let's assume the other 60% demand is already there (Actually, I think this is probably true). Just based on these current estimates, it seems that demand is strong enough to at least keep up with inflation; showing that the demand for the new 1,278,340 BTC/year is MOST LIKELY being met with the supply at $23.50/BTC.

If we could accurately predict an increase in demand over the rest of the supply in the next year (Again, I think this is probably true as well), then demand will surpass inflation, begin cutting into the older Bitcoin stock, and consequently increase the price.

So what will the price be in a year, you ask?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l91ISfcuzDw

Obviously, I'm optimistic and this doesn't prove anything... but it was fun anyway  :D



Keep in mind, on the other hand, if demand can not keep up with the supply from inflation and sellers, the price WILL go down until it can.

But like I said, I think it can -- so $23.50 doesn't seem that expensive to me. In fact, I think demand is strong enough right now and will only grow, pushing the price up even further.

Remember, this opinion is only based on one set of demand data, but I think you all get the picture...

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